Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Paola Conconi
Author-Name-First: Paola
Author-Name-Last: Conconi
Author-Name: Nicolas Sahuguet
Author-Name-First: Nicolas
Author-Name-Last: Sahuguet
Author-Name: Maurizio Zanardi
Author-Name-First: Maurizio
Author-Name-Last: Zanardi
Title: Electoral incentives, term limits and the sustainability of peace
Abstract: One of the few stylized facts in international relations is that democracies, unlike autocracies, almost never fight each other. We develop a theoretical model to examine the sustainability of international peace between democracies and autocracies, where the crucial difference between these two political regimes is whether or not policymakers are subject to periodic elections. We show that the fear of losing office can make it less tempting for democratic leaders to wage war against other countries. Crucially, this discipline effect can only be at work if incumbent leaders can be re-elected, suggesting that democracies with term limits should be more conflict prone, particularly when the executive is serving the last possible term. These results rationalize recent empirical findings on how term limits affect the propensity of democracies to engage in conflicts.
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/LancasterWP2015_021.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Number: 94449241
Classification-JEL: C72, D72, F00
Keywords: Interstate Conflicts, Democratic Peace, Elections, Term Limits
Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:94449241